RG
RegimeGuard | Rolling SVD & HMM Early Warning System
Gaussian HMM 3-State Classifier Repository
Quick Assets:

Empirical Drawdown Protection & Backtest Telemetry

Rolling SVD & Latent Subspace Drift (D_t) Out-of-Sample Protection

Benchmark Max DD -24.50%
Strategy Max DD -19.55%
Tail Risk Reduction +4.95% Protection
Current Regime State
State --
Gaussian HMM Classification
Active Warning Status
NORMAL
Total Warnings: --
Risk-Off Strategy Return
--%
Buy & Hold: --%
Alpha Outperformance
--%
SVD Lead-Time Signal

Institutional Performance & Risk Audit

Risk-Free Rate: 4.5%
Portfolio Strategy Annualized Return Annualized Volatility Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio Max Drawdown Calmar Ratio Historical VaR (95%)
Dynamic Risk-Off SVD -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Buy & Hold Benchmark -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Asset Price Trajectory & Market Regime Transitions

60-Day Rolling Window

Latent Factor Subspace Instability (ΔΣ & Subspace Drift D_t)

Rolling SVD Vector Drift

Dynamic Risk-Off Allocation Backtest vs. Buy & Hold Benchmark

Cumulative Performance & Drawdowns